Hit Hard by Coronavirus, Ecuador's Crisis is a Barometer for Latin America at Large
Introduction
Many countries hit hardest by the Coronavirus have a few characteristics in common that facilitate the spread: high levels of international travel, high population density, and aging populations. Because these factors correlate with vibrant commercial activity, it is no coincidence that the strongest global economies are some of the hardest hit, including China, the United States, and the European Union.
Because of these characteristics, many are puzzled as to why the small country of Ecuador is one of the hardest hit by the coronavirus, particularly in its largest city of Guayaquil. Compared to countries like Italy and the United States, Ecuador’s population is relatively young, and most people live in rural areas, both factors that should reduce the risk, according to Jenny Garcia, a demographer who studies Latin America at the Institut National d’Études Démographiques in France.
Ecuador’s surge is suspected to have originated from people returning from Spain as flights began shutting down, but this would have been the case across Latin America. Ecuador’s economy and population (17 million) are roughly one-tenth the size of that of Mexico. And although Mexico has been undoubtedly hit by the virus, the crisis there does not appear to be reaching anything close to the situation in New York City or Italy, even in Mexico City, with a population of over 25 million and extremely high density, commerce, and public transportation.
Unlike the presidents of the United States and Mexico, Ecuador’s President Lenin Moreno has acknowledged a severe shortage of testing that is undermining the official count. As of April 22, the country had reported almost 11,000 confirmed cases. On a per capita basis, this is the highest in Latin America second only to Panama.
The hardest hit region is the Guayas Province, in which the large port city of Guayaquil is located. In this Province, 6,700 people died in the first half of April, compared to 1,000 in a normal year. Still, the official virus death tally in the country is just over 500. A New York Times analysis estimates Ecuador's real coronavirus death toll may be 15 times greater. The dismal news from Guayaquil is filled with stories of dead people in the streets, overfilled morgues, and desperate families waiting days to retrieve their dead relatives.
The recent surge caused Ecuador’s government to impose some of the most restrictive lock-down measures in Latin America. Residents may not leave their homes at all between the hours of 2 p.m. and 5 a.m. except for certain essential purposes. They must wear masks and gloves, and all public transportation is on hiatus. In Ecuador's capital Quito, people may only drive one day a week.
Ecuador also faces similar shortcomings of many other Latin American healthcare systems in combating the virus. The country has a quarter as many ventilators per capita as the United States, which ramped up production in recent weeks after a surge caused massive shortages. Due to this increased production and a stabilizing situation in the U.S., the Trump Administration recently announced that it would send much-needed ventilators to Ecuador, El Salvador, and Honduras, with an additional commitment to assist other countries like Mexico.
To make matters worse, President Moreno expelled 400 Cuban doctors from Ecuador last year, which worsened its already understaffed healthcare system. “When they left, there were no specialists to replace them, “said Ricardo Ramirez, a retired doctor in Guayaquil. “It’s one important factor why we can’t provide an adequate response to the virus now.”
Before President Moreno expelled the doctors, there were between 800 and 1,000 Cuban specialists in the country. These physicians had been welcomed by former leftist President Rafael Correa, who built stronger ties with Havana to seek medical aid during a 2001 dengue epidemic and after a 2016 earthquake. This policy quickly reversed with President Moreno’s rightward shift and with Correa’s legacy undermined by allegations of corruption for which he was recently indicted by a Ecuadorian high court.
This expulsion is part of a larger pressure campaign by the United States to discourage use of Cuba’s international network of doctors because of the State Department’s claims that Cuba exploits these physicians to generate revenue. Under U.S. pressure, a similar scenario played out in Bolivia, which expelled hundreds of Cuban doctors after right-wing leader Jeanine Anez replaced socialist President Evo Morales after he was ousted last year.
An Already Turbulent Latin America Pushed to Its Limits
The pandemic crisis in Latin America comes across the backdrop of a worsening political and economic situation across the region. After enjoying a relative period of calm after the end of widespread military dictatorships and guerilla warfare at the end of the 20th Century, the region is again suffering economic crises and violent protests.
Like other countries in the region like Bolivia and Chile, Ecuador experienced deadly protests last year in response to austerity measures the Moreno Administration has been trying to impose to address a heavy debt burden incurred by his predecessor. For example, a government plan to save $1.4 billion a year by ending a fuel subsidy sparked massive protests last October that paralyzed much of the nation. That crisis gave the people of Ecuador a taste of the current quarantine when a mandatory curfew was established to quell the protests.
As if the country’s finances were not already in the red, the country is taking an even greater hit with the collapse of oil prices and tourism. With these shortages, President Morales and his counterparts are scrambling to negotiate relief from the country’s creditors and enact stimulus measures and aid to affected people.
Caught in the middle of the crisis are the thousands of displaced Venezuelans who have been absorbed by neighboring countries across the region. In a prior article, we wrote how the Venezuelan refugee crisis has been exacerbated by the current crisis as borders are closed and many Venezuelans out of work are returning to their home country. For the Venezuelans who are remaining in exile in Ecuador, community organizations are struggling to provide basic food and shelter to most of the quarter million Venezuelans who entered Ecuador in recent years. The future of millions of Venezuelans both inside and out of their homecountry depends on the outcome of a power struggle between the government of Nicolás Maduro and the opposition government of Juan Guaidó (recognized by the U.S. and over 50 other countries as the legitimate leader of the country), which is impeding a coordinated response.
International Trade Considerations
The current crisis appears to be postponing talks between Moreno and the Trump Administration to negotiate a free trade agreement similar to those already existing with Peru and Colombia. In addition to oil exports, other key exports are broccoli, artichokes, tuna, flowers, shrimp, and bananas, all of which are facing drying global demand.
Before the crisis, a delegation of U.S. trade and investment officials was scheduled to travel to Ecuador this April to discuss ways to mutually boost investment and trade. Although these talks have been placed on hold as both countries deal with crises within their borders, a trade deal could provide a much-needed boost to Ecuador and a benefit to American consumers as the countries work towards recovery. Ecuador exported close to $7 billion of goods to the U.S. last year, with agricultural products and seafood together representing about 22% of the total, according to U.S. trade statistics. Only oil and gas exports, at 60%, outstripped those two food categories.
Conclusion
Perhaps one psychological advantage that Latin America enjoys over the United States is that our southern neighbors are not strangers to political unrest and economic collapse. Pundits in the U.S. often speak about how this crisis is unprecedented, but it may be more accurate to classify the crisis as a 19th Century problem imposed on a modern country that has not experienced significant national hardship in the decades since the end of World War II. During that same period, Latin America has experienced multiple waves of forced coups, brutal dictatorships, guerilla and cartel warfare, currency collapses, and hyperinflation. Through all of this, our southern neighbors have persevered and will continue to do so after the dust clears.